Adverse Impact Analysis for the ‘Northern Alternative’ Route (6.1 miles)

Piedmont and Heritage Hunt (a Senior 55 Plus community) are nestled in the foothills of the Bull Run mountain range, home to epic civil war battles and a critical part of our nation’s history. Our communities have almost 3500 homes, two signature golf courses, and are adorned by Little Bull Run Creek, a tributary of the Chesapeake Bay. Beyond Piedmont and Heritage Hunt, the “Northern Route” will directly impact Conway Robinson Memorial State Forest, Parks at Piedmont, Carolina Estates, West Market, and countless other individual properties and businesses.

HISTORICAL: Conway Robinson Memorial State Forest: Historic 444 acre property with direct ties to the first battle of Manassas and donated with NATIONAL preservation in mind, not as an easement. It is the ONLY State Forest within a growing urban environment. Conway Robinson is a wonderful resource for school curriculums.

ENVIRONMENTAL: The proposed Northern Route impacts virtually every environmental item you could think of including: Endangered species impacted from mussels to mammals, bats, turtles, etc. Loss of local fruit and plants due to lack of pollination. The high voltage power lines are known to disrupt a bee’s natural environment and pollination efforts. Wetlands earmarked for protection, decimated. Chesapeake Bay Water Shed – Little Bull Run creek is well within the watershed and feeds the Bay. Toxic chemicals and disruption from construction will flow to the bay. Habitat destruction for many species including the Cardinal, VA state bird. Historic Oak Tree on the Virginia State Registry of specimen trees. Mile plus of old growth hardwoods lost. Ecosystem disruption and destruction. Functional loss of equestrian and pedestrian trails, permanently. And, at least 831,000 square feet in RPA crossed and nearly 20 acres of RPA cleared

FINANCIAL: The Coalition’s very conservative economic modelling of residential property value impairment using journal-published articles and professional real estate appraisal guidance found approximately 551 homes would be impaired by between $13K and $18K each, for a total of $7-10M. Local home owners and real estate experts see the potential for a more catastrophic loss given the integral nature of the golf courses and other amenities to the quality of life and home values in the relevant communities

  • Est. 200 homes with 30% values loss or $20+ million
  • Est. 3500 homes with a range of 2-20% value loss or $150-200 million combined
  • Almost non-existent resale for Heritage Hunt and significant loss for Piedmont
  • Lost taxes for the county and town
  • HOA deterioration to infrastructure due to inability to increase related fees, therefore eroding quality of the community and attracting new residents.
  • Piedmont Club & Heritage Hunt: Lost revenue due to reduction in current and future memberships, fewer corporate functions, fewer weddings and private events, fewer charitable outings, reduction in staff, etc. Golf course continued viability in doubt at Heritage Hunt – 3 holes rendered unplayable due to Dominion power lines.

Local business supported by the various communities will see a significant loss of clientele and revenue as the communities are no longer attractive to current residents and future buyers. Directly-related business such as medical & extended living support in place to support Heritage Hunt would suffer.

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